Sweet city or July will be a dip process

Time such as the blink, twinkling of an eye, at the end of June, the "hopeless" in July will also be to have descended. Rosin market review in June, the price decline is beyond our expectations: whampoa horsetail level of rosin on drop 1200 yuan/ton, wetland level of rosin on drop 600 yuan/ton; And the trend of current still continue to seek support down. Sweet prices fell sharply in June once caused panic, the mentality of afternoon to confusion and mood so anxious, the direction of the market in July? Here small make up to make a analysis: July incense, or will be a dip process.

Is to produce a quarter of all open. After entering July, guangxi fat quantity increased, the factory all starts; Guangdong, fujian will produce ignition, rosin output for the city; And production areas such as jiangxi, hunan, hubei new resin will be listed in succession, the pressure on the formation and other market of guangdong, in the case of supply and demand is difficult to improve, prices continue to dip direction is difficult to change. In addition, as the season progressed, turpentine oil production to fill the city will also increase gradually, but turpentine oil prices have hovered high for a long time, recently has been cut, into the July prices continue to callback the probability is higher, so the price of rosin influenced by turpentine oil price cut, also will seek support downward dip.

The second is the industry of indication of lack of confidence and attitude down. All say attitude decides everything, mentality affect operation, factory confident mentality rosin prices is relatively strong; On the other hand, the negative panic mentality is likely to cause everybody to price goods. At present, the personage inside course of study to have lower expectations of rosin afternoon, we have learned, some industry insiders predict July whampoa horsetail level of rosin prices could fall to 10500 yuan/ton, wetland level of rosin to fall to 10000 yuan/ton, the mid to late July at this price, delivery period of single most factories can't order! Visible factory on July market also lack of confidence, even the bearish market. In the case of low overall mentality, July forecast rosin prices downward.

3 it is to need not release on schedule. In April and may, the industry is expected to June and July will improve market demand, the reason is that in north jiangsu and zhejiang area downstream enterprises will be put into production in succession; In June but reality did not like the industry expected demand release, instead of weakness all the time! Deep processing and the downstream enterprises adhere to the principle of single procurement, while its orders have been slow to improve. Just as the "blood" of the market demand, lifeless without new blood market; Market demand is expected for July and will also be depressed, although will have some order to delivery in July, but not to the market overall demand to improve; So sweet for bottom price trend will remain.

Fourth, foreign trade export rut. According to customs statistics, May 2017, exports of 5371 tons, rosin last year decreased by 14.15% compared to the same; In may and rosin imports 4738 tons, compared with last year increased by 35.77%. By the above data visible and abroad market demand, price is relatively cheap Chinese rosin rosin and rosin fewer exports and imports in China is the main reason. In June, while the domestic rosin price cut is bigger, but foreign rosin prices also followed the cut, and the "buy or not to buy up" market inertia influence, see Chinese rosin successively lower, additional customer has suspended the procurement, would like to wait for next lower price to take the goods. Now the domestic price of rosin has not yet been stabilizing, reason is expected in July, foreign customers mainly wait-and-see, the thinking of small batch cautious purchasing will continue; Domestic rosin export is still difficult to be improved.

Comprehensive above four, small make up think rosin market trend in July or will still be a dip process. Rosin market in July, however, there are three advantages can look forward to:

Is an early sign of single more focused on July and August delivery, purchase of relative concentration will surely lead to volume change. At the appointed time to stock up/p, the parties will focus on procurement; The buyer once the polling and market goods price increase, the factory will strike while the iron is hot exploratory pushing up prices; In addition, from September 7, 8, domestic of single sign price, low price of the order such as pinus massoniana rosin 10600 yuan/ton level around the price of the factory has not been reluctant to sign the bill, visible of most factories have price reduction has been near the bottom, bet of single meaning is not big, rather than subject to manipulation. At present, most factories mentality is smooth and into the rational operation period, visible rosin market fall has been relatively limited space in the future. In this consideration, so a wave of short-term rebound in July rosin market is possible.

2 it is turpentine oil prices callback of rosin play a supporting role. In June, the factory can in price, low price of high fat case to go goods, is one of the main factors have high turpentine to diluted cost; And current turpentine oil prices have retreated, although at present in guangxi masson pine turpentine oil optimal ex-factory price is in 17300 yuan/tons, but most of the personage inside course of study for turpentine afternoon, prices will continue to cut has become the consensus of the majority of the people; Especially in September 7, 8, and in every region of the turpentine oil after comprehensive listing, turpentine oil price may have a larger decline. This is expected to make factory for cost reasons, not for rosin price too low, so prices fall back it will prompt rosin prices stabilised or even rebound.

3 it is or rosin market to bring good weather factors. Rains the weather in June, the southern region is more, the region for the first batch of resin volume is not very ideal; And various typhoon, rainstorm weather may occur in July than in June, it does not exclude the raw material supply will appear deviation; In June, many factories signed a part of the July delivery period, this is likely to trigger a short-term shock market demand. In addition, because June rosin prices are falling too fast and fall beyond the market expectations, fat cause part of the factory's enthusiasm is not high, all say down for a long time will be up, so July rosin market prices or rebound may exist.

Overall, rosin in July are still subject to many factors influence the direction of the market, in addition to the requirements, the weather factor, market confidence is also a factor decide whether or not a rosin price stabilisation. Fragrance prices tumbled in June half of the reason is due to the lack of confidence in the industry, the mentality of panic, but in fact the rosin in June inventories last year compared to the much less, and just need to purchase has always been; If after the June tumbled and rosin market has entered a low risk area, therefore, don't need to worry too much for July rosin industry market trends, risks and opportunities, we should actively cope with, for those routes operation is the best policy.